Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Infosys agrees to record U.S. immigration settlement

infosys shibulal

Infosys, an Indian company led by S. D. Shibual, has reached a record $34 million settlement with federal prosecutors to settle allegations of visa fraud and abuse of the immigration process.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) The Indian company Infosys has reached a record $34 million settlement with federal prosecutors in Texas, to settle "allegations of systemic visa fraud and abuse of immigration processes."

The U.S. Attorney's Office of the Eastern District in Texas said that this is the largest payment ever levied in an immigration case.

The government accused software developer Infosys (INFY) of using workers with B-1 visas, which only allow temporary entry into the U.S. for business purposes, to perform skilled labor jobs.

The U.S. said these jobs should only be performed by workers with H-1B visas, which allow foreign nationals to enter the U.S. to perform a specialty occupation.

The government accused Infosys (INFY), a software developer, of using B-1 visa holders to perform skilled labor jobs that were supposed to be done by "legitimate" holders of H-1B visas.

The settlement says Infosys submitted letters to U.S. Consular Officials that "contained false statements regarding the true purpose of a B-1 visa holder's travel in order to deceive U.S. Consular Officials and secure entry of the visa holder into the United States."

It also says that Infosys issued a "dos" and "don'ts" memorandum directing B-1 visa holders "to deceive U.S. Consular Officials, including specific instructions to avoid certain terminology, to secure entry of the visa holder in the United States." The memo allegedly included instructions to avoid using words like "work" and "contract" in certain communications with U.S. officials.

Infosys said it agreed to a civil settlement "relating to I-9 paperwork errors and visa matters that were the subject of the investigation. There were no criminal charges or court rulings against the company." To top of page

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

LinkedIn's Earnings: What Investors Need to Know

Social-media job recruiter, LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD  ) is reporting results later today. While the Street is still sifting through Apple's earnings report and eagerly awaiting results from LinkedIn's social-media brethren, Facebook  (NASDAQ: FB  ) , could investors be overlooking an opportunity with LinkedIn? What should LinkedIn investors know, and what can LinkedIn learn from Facebook?

Amazing revenue growth must continue
S&P's Capital IQ consensus estimates project LinkedIn to report revenue of $385.5 million, an amazing 53% higher than last year's quarter. Revenue growth is extremely important and will be watched closely; investors have been extremely bullish on LinkedIn's prospects and have bid the company up from a price-to-sales ratio of 12 to its current ratio of nearly 23. If LinkedIn doesn't hit this ambitious goal, it's possible we could see a large selloff.

Guidance is important too
In addition to reporting phenomenal revenue for this quarter, LinkedIn must provide positive guidance for next quarter and the upcoming year. While the current consensus revenue estimate is receiving the most attention, lost is the fact that analysts are expecting LinkedIn to increase this quarter's revenue by over 40% in the September 2014 quarter by reporting $544.8 million.

Here's why they will do both
In a nutshell, the answer is mobile: LinkedIn has an aggressive plan to build out its mobile network, even hosting its first Mobile Day on Oct. 23. CEO Jeff Weiner hailed mobile as a "game-changer" for LinkedIn's products and revenue.

Looking at the numbers one can understand why: Mobile users are 2.5 times as active as desktop-only users. And while LinkedIn is more than just a social-media advertising model (54% of its revenue is talent solutions—job postings—and another 20% is premium subscriptions), all three of its business divisions will benefit from a more engaged user base.

LinkedIn is aggressively attacking this new opportunity. In addition to the company redesigning its iPad app, it also announced Intro to attaches profile information about an email's sender. While there were grumblings about privacy and security, you can see how LinkedIn is aggressively targeting the mobile experience.

Why the sudden change of heart?
Many initially thought that LinkedIn should have continued to build its website around the desktop experience and wonder why LinkedIn decided to pivot to mobile. The answer? To paraphrase famous bank robber Willie Sutton, "because that's where the monetization is."

Facebook shocked investors by growing mobile revenue from nearly nothing to 41% of its total ad revenue in the company's second quarter. Mark Zuckerberg even stated in his call that he expected to have more revenue on mobile than on desktop. Facebook reports tomorrow, and many investors expect the monetization in mobile to continue.

Final Foolish thoughts
LinkedIn is a clear leader in this space and has become a must have for any career-oriented professional. Wall Street has high hopes for revenue growth, guidance, and monetization of mobile. LinkedIn has ambitious targets but appears to have a plan to meet those goals.

Social media investors need to watch this video
LinkedIn is a fantastic story, so much so that we can't cover it all in a single article. Find out what I can't say in this special video. LinkedIn is growing twice as fast as Google and Facebook, and more than three times as fast as Amazon.com and Apple. Watch our jaw-dropping investor alert video today to find out why The Motley Fool's chief technology officer is putting $117,238 of his own money on the table, and why he's so confident this will be a huge winner in 2013 and beyond. Just click here to watch!

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Monday, October 28, 2013

Does Apple Have a Secret Weapon?

With shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) trading at around $450, is the company an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

C = Catalyst for the Stock's Movement

Most Apple investors have heard about the iWatch, but not many investors know any details of the rumored device. Actually, nobody outside of Apple knows the details for sure, but information tends to leak. Whether the information below is accurate or not cannot be confirmed. At this point in time, it must be considered rumor. With that in mind, let's take a look at what the iWatch may offer. This information may surprise as well as impress many people:

Runs on iOS Voice control (personal assistant, Siri) Email and text capabilities Phone calls possible Maps function Monitors vitals Monitors daily exercise time (don't underestimate this feature in today's health-conscious world) Operates by kinetic energy Fingerprint scanner 1.5-inch and 2-inch display Bluetooth (connects wirelessly to headphones) Social networking capability Plays music Weather forecast News updates Sports updates Voice recording capability Front-facing camera Curved glass – possibly Willow Glass by Corning Inc. (NYSE:GLW)

The odds of the list above being 100 percent accurate are close to nil. At the same time, there is also likely to be a lot of truth mixed in. If that's the case, then Apple just might surprise the market with a new innovative product that sticks. The only downside for impatient investors is that the launch has supposedly been pushed back to late 2014.

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On a different note, there has been much criticism of CEO Tim Cook. It's obviously going to be difficult for someone to come in and replace Steve Jobs. However, according to Glassdoor.com, a very impressive 93 percent of Apple employees approve of Cook. It's always better to listen to insiders than outsiders.

Traffic for a consumer company's website can offer excellent hints for demand for its products. According to Alexa.com, Apple.com's traffic has steadily declined over the past six months. Over the past three months, pageviews-per-user has declined 6.36 percent, time-on-site has declined 7 percent, and the bounce rate (only one pageview per visit) has increased 7 percent. Not so hot at the moment.

With regard to mobile, Apple still owns 46.4 percent of the tablet market, but it's weak in smartphones.

Pete Cunningham, Canalys Principal Analyst, stated:

"HTC and Samsung have raised the bar with their latest handsets and Apple needs to respond with its next iPhone. The iPhone user interface is now six years old and badly in need of a refresh. Hardware-wise, the biggest dilemma that Apple faces is what it does with the size of the display on the next iPhone. It cannot afford to ignore the trend for larger displays in premium smartphones."

As far as fundamentals go, they couldn't be much stronger for Apple. That's why so many investors have been frustrated with the stock's performance. What many investors are failing to realize is that it's not about how the company is performing now; it's about how the company is expected to perform in the future. In the case of Apple, there has been no innovative product to excite investors (and traders) again. Perhaps that will change late next year. Or possibly even earlier since Apple likes surprises.

The chart below compares fundamentals for Apple, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT).

AAPL GOOG MSFT
Trailing P/E 10.63 26.13 17.68
Forward P/E 10.19 16.43 11.20
Profit Margin 23.46% 20.92% 21.58%
ROE 33.34% 16.36% 22.58%
Operating Cash Flow 55.26B 16.56B 30.61B
Dividend Yield 2.80% N/A 2.60%
Short Position 4.40% 1.50% 1.30%

Let's take a look at some more important numbers prior to forming an opinion on this stock.

T = Technicals Are Mixed

Apple has disappointed investors over the past year, but there has been some upside momentum over the past month.

1 Month Year-To-Date 1 Year 3 Year
AAPL 10.31% -15.33% -20.32% 87.61%
GOOG 8.13% 23.50% 43.34% 85.07%
MSFT 12.68% 30.16% 21.21% 38.30%

At $445.15, Apple is trading above its 50-day SMA, but still below its 200-day SMA.

50-Day SMA 431.48
200-Day SMA 479.08
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E = Equity to Debt Ratio Is Strong

The debt-to-equity ratio for Apple is stronger than the industry average of 0.30.

Debt-To-Equity Cash Long-Term Debt
AAPL 0.00 39.14B 0.00
GOOG 0.10 50.10B 7.38B
MSFT 0.19 73.79B 14.76B

E = Earnings Have Been Strong

Look all over the market. You're not going to find many companies with annual numbers like the ones displayed below.

Fiscal Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenue ($) in millions 32,479 42,905 65,225 108,249 156,508
Diluted EPS ($) 5.36 6.29 15.15 27.68 44.15

Looking at the last quarter on a year-over-year basis, revenue increased and earnings declined. Both revenue and earnings declined on a sequential basis. This has been a rarity for Apple.

Quarter Mar. 31, 2012 Jun. 30, 2012 Sep. 30, 2012 Dec. 31, 2012 Mar. 31, 2013
Revenue ($) in millions 39,186 35,023 35,966 54,512 43,603
Diluted EPS ($) 12.30 9.32 8.67 13.81 10.09

Now let's take a look at the next page for the Conclusion. Is this stock an OUTPERFORM, a WAIT AND SEE, or a STAY AWAY?

Conclusion

Apple is one of the strongest brands in the world. With quality leadership and an enormous amount of cash available, it should only be a matter of time before the stock begins to please investors. However, the key word in the previous sentence was "should". The market has been slightly under the weather since Ben Bernanke hinted that he may begin to unwind monetary stimulus later this year. Is this yet another incredible buying opportunity for the market, or have the past few years been a facade and the wheels are about to come off? There are many opinions on both sides, but nobody knows the answer to that question with certainty. The market behaves in strange ways and often in ways the masses don't expect. The point here is that there are increased risks due to external events. Even if the market continues its ascent, it's too early for the iWatch excitement.

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Under new structure, fewer MetLife advisers pushed to produce more

metlife, broker-dealers

MetLife Inc. is revamping its distribution group, giving its two remaining broker-dealers higher required minimum production levels with the expectations of selling more proprietary products with fewer reps.

The insurer is placing MetLife Securities Inc., New England Securities Inc. and MetLife Resources, a retirement services distributor, under a new banner called The MetLife Premier Client Group.

As part of the restructuring, the firm will further cut its adviser corps by 300 to 600 reps after eliminating about 2,300 since last year.

(See also: MetLife adviser ranks thinning out fast after cuts)

“The goal for the end of 2015 is about 4,700 to 5,000 advisers with an average of $185,000 in production,” said Paul LaPiana, senior vice president of MetLife Premier Client Group.

In 2012, MetLife had 7,600 advisers with an average production of $127,000 per rep. Today, that number is down to 5,300, with an average of $165,000 in production for each adviser.

Advisers under the new structure will be expected to meet higher sales minimums. Last year, brokers needed to generate $60,000 in production to make their minimum. That number is now $90,000 – and of that, at least $60,000 must come from proprietary products, whether MetLife's asset management platform or the sale of disability, annuity or life insurance products.

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“If someone doesn't have the $90,000, but they've made $75,000 in proprietary product sales, we'll allow them to make the minimum production requirement,” Mr. LaPiana said.

The company announced the name change on Oct. 15 but details are just now emerging.

Friday, October 25, 2013

Owl Spring Targets Activism with a Hedge

Corrected from 2:54 p.m. to reference investment in International Game Technology (IGT) and not International Technology Group (ITG)

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Activist investors such as Carl Icahn, Jeffrey Ubben of ValueAct Capital, Nelson Peltz of Trian Management and Bill Ackman of Pershing Square have spent 2013 engaging companies as big as Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Pepsico (PEP) and Procter & Gamble (PG), however, some funds entering the business are content to take on smaller parts of the stock market.

Owl Spring Asset Management, a combination of Ader Investment Management and Cumberland Associates, is poised to launch with $225 million in assets under management and a strategy of imparting change at under-performing or mismanaged companies between $200 million and $2 billion in size. The firm will also look to hedge its investments with a portfolio of short positions that may be unique among so-called activist funds.

The fund's creation, which was announced on Wednesday, also comes at a time when small and mid-sized firms are generally overlooked by the business press and retail investors. Meanwhile, a rising number of initial public offerings in 2013 and the poor performance of some once high-profile firms is creating a new crop of companies for activists and value investors to target.

Owl Spring will be run by Jason Ader, a prominent gaming analyst who successfully advocated board changes at International Game Technology  (ITG) this year with his firm Ader Investment Management. Ader will be joined by Andrew Wallach, the CEO of Cumberland Associates, the predecessor of Owl Spring Asset Management. Cumberland Associates also has a record of value and change-based investments. The firm was part of a group of funds that recapitalized auto parts supplier Visteon (VC) after the firm's 2009 bankruptcy and helped it re-emerge as a public company. In the past, year Visteon has also changed CEOs, streamlined its assets and increased its share buyback authorization to $1 billion. According to a spokesperson, Ader Investment Management has returned 40.05% this year, following a 14.92% in 2012, while Cumberland Associates has posted an impressive annualized 14.5% rate of return over 43 years. SEC filings as of June 30 show that United Rentals (URI), Liberty Media (LMCA), General Motors (GM), GenCorp (GY) and AIG (AIG) were Cumberland's top holdings. The fund also opened position in Regions Financial (RF) and ING US (VOYA) in the second quarter, the filings show. Ader and Wallach spoke in a telephone interview about their strategy to grow Owl Spring into a "constructivist" fund. The firm will concentrate on debt and equity investments across the retail, technology, media, gaming, financial and energy sector. In spite of a rash of activist investments in 2013 and the rise of new funds such as Starboard Value, Barington Capital, Marcato Capital, Ader and Wallach say there are plenty of opportunities for investors seeking to create value by way improving poor capital allocation or corporate governance policies. They also don't appear to be overly concerned about a rise in stock market valuations through 2013. "I personally have found it is more useful to think about absolute valuation than relative valuation," Wallach said of current market valuations. With new companies hitting 52-week lows on a daily basis, he said the trick will be identifying firms with the ability to recover. Owl Spring will concentrate on debt and equity investments across sectors like retail, technology, media, gaming, financials and energy. Wallach highlighted the technology sector as a particularly tricky part of the market where Owl Spring may be able to identify value. He said many firms in the technology space trade at low multiples and have inefficient balance sheets that could support stock buybacks and dividends. Some tech firms may also have longer lives than investors may expect, Wallach said, citing a potential consolidation of semi-conductor firms as an opportunity. Ader added that in deciding between tech firms that are value traps and those that could present an opportunity for an activist he often asks: "Would anyone care if this business went away?" In the case of Blockbuster the answer was clearly no, however, Ader said firms such as Yahoo (YHOO), with its popular Asian businesses, prove some firms have longer life spans than the market may expect. When asked about BlackBerry (BBRY), Ader said he had friends on Wall Street that would care if the business went away. "I do see value there and it is one that is interesting," Ader said of BlackBerry.

Ader cautioned about the ability for activists to impart change within the banking sector, given the Federal Reserve's influence in approving board directors. Even if a firm like Owl Spring were to win a proxy contest, there is no guarantee their seat would be approved by the Fed, Ader said. Owl Spring will start with $225 million in combined capital and it will plan to bring in new partners through 2014. They, however, don't plan to do significant advertising given a long-standing investor base. -- Written by Antoine Gara in New York. Follow @antoinegara

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Deckers Surges as Profit Falls Less-than-Expected

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NEW YORK (TheStreet) - Deckers (DECK) shares were surging 14% in post-markets trading even as the UGG's maker's profits fell in the third quarter. Wall Street was expecting a larger drop in earnings.

The Goleta, Calif.-based company reported profit of $33 million, or 95 cents a share, a 23% decline compared to the same period a year ago. The decline wasn't as bad as analysts expected, easily surpassing an estimate of 72 cents a share.

Shares rose 13.6% to $66 in post-markets trading.

"The UGG brand has shown great resiliency over the past year driven by innovative new products and advancements in our marketing, merchandising and selling strategies," Chairman and CEO Angel Martinez said in the earnings statement. "The fall selling season started well led by demand for our expanded collection of casual shoes and boots. As we move further into the back half of the year, sell-through of our core Classic and slipper collections is accelerating. We are pleased with our current business trends and believe the company is well positioned for the upcoming holiday period. More importantly, we believe the investments we are making in our brands, distribution platforms and supply chain will strengthen our growth profile and enhance our profitability over the long-term," Martinez said. Deckers' net sales rose 2.7% to $386.7 million compared to the same period last year and surpassed analysts' expectations of $385.9 million. Gross margin rose 90 basis points to 43.2% in the same time period. The company's UGG brand - its largest generator of sales rose 1.3% to $337 million year over year. Deckers also makes shoes under the Teva and Sanuk brands. Same-store sales rose 1.9% in the quarter, while the company's e-commerce platform saw double-digit increase of 12.2% to $14.9 million. The company is seeing solid progress in their international sales as well, up 10.3% to $147.9 million. Decker's raised its full-year outlook on earnings and revenue. It now expects a 10% increase in earnings per share over last year's earnings of $3.45 a share, compared to 8%. Wall Street was expecting earnings of $3.77 a share. However Deckers tempered expectations of fourth-quarter earnings. It now expects diluted earnings per share to increase approximately 32% over 2012 levels, compared to its previous projection of approximately 38%. -- Written by Laurie Kulikowski in New York.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

An Interview With Scott Di Valerio, CEO of Coinstar

The Motley Fool is on the road in Seattle! Recently we visited Coinstar -- now officially renamed Outerwall  (NASDAQ: OUTR  ) -- to speak with CFO-turned-CEO Scott Di Valerio about the 22-year-old company's well-known coin-cashing machines, as well as its more recent acquisition of Redbox, and future initiatives to expand into other aspects of the automated retail market.

In this interview, Scott chats with The Fool about the economics of coin and video kiosks, Coinstar's share repurchase program, and its exciting initiatives in a number of new automated retail spaces as well as related online services. From coffee and breakfast to cosmetics and photo shoots, Coinstar is looking to move into much more than coins and video.

A full transcript follows the video.

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Austin Smith: Scott, thanks so much for joining us today.

Scott Di Valerio: Thanks, I appreciate you being here.

Austin: Thanks for having us.

Newly in the CEO role, came up from the CFO ranks -- I'm wondering if you could maybe talk a little bit about that transition and what it's like now that you're steering the ship?

Di Valerio: Yeah. It's been a lot of fun. I've been on the team for three-and-a-half years, so really working hard to set the strategy with our executive team and coming in as the CEO, working with that team to continue to push forward.

The good thing is we have a good, strong strategy that's leveraging our leadership in automated retail. We're focusing across six sectors that we set up. That gives us about a $16 billion revenue sweet spot for us in the automated retail space, in an $85 billion market.

We're really setting course with our team to be able to get after that part of the business.

Austin: When you say $85 billion, is that what you see as the addressable market for automated retail?

Di Valerio: For automated retail, yes. Then when we narrow it down to the six sectors that we're looking at and the sweet spots that we think we can get after, it's around $16 billion. With some adjacencies around it, it'll go out to around $20 billion, so we've got a nice, big market for us to get after, and being a leader will allow us to get after it pretty quickly.

Austin: Nice to have those good runways.

Di Valerio: That's right.

Austin: You said you were looking at all these markets. If you look five years out in all of your adjacent markets, where do you see automated retail five years from today, both from your perspective, and from an industry perspective?

Di Valerio: I think automated retail really plays into the trends that we're seeing here -- urbanization, the 24/7 gratification that people want -- as well as people getting very comfortable with technology, and technology getting very good so that we can deliver products and services in a kiosk format or automated retail format.

I think people are getting much more used to getting products and services from an automated retail format. I see it expanding out.

One of the things we do at Coinstar, and have done, is we develop a relationship with our customers through the automated retail solution or the kisosk.

We do that through our email capture, and being able to have communication back and forth with them through having a good customer experience, to where people go to stores -- certain stores and certain kiosks -- because they've developed a relationship with Redbox or with Coinstar. We're going to look to continue to do that with some of our other products as well, as we bring it in the marketplace.

As we look out, we see it continuing to expand. We see it as being a way to sit in between that brick-and-mortar and the Web fulfillment. There's lots of opportunities for us in areas that we haven't even addressed yet.

Austin: You said you're neatly positioned between bricks-and-mortar and that Web experience. Those seem to be industries that have a lot of "once great" success stories here. There's a lot of once-great retailers out there; companies like Sears or J.C. Penney. There's also a lot of once-great tech companies out there: Apple famously down, Microsoft's not done a lot the past few years.

Given that you guys are at the intersection of that, what are you doing, as an executive and as a company, to continue the creative machine, to make sure that you guys stay relevant and avoid the pitfalls that are inherent in both of those industries?

Di Valerio: One of the things we always do is we start with the customer. We do a lot of work trying to understand what customer trends are, and what our customers want, and what new customers that would be coming to us would want.

We start there, and then start building backwards, about how do we develop a solution? If you look at our core businesses, the coin business, we're rolling out our PayPal solution, where you're able to load up your PayPal account with coins or cash, or withdraw from your PayPal account as well at our Coinstar machines.

What that does is open up Internet merchandising, or merchandisers, to maybe the under-banked and non-banked customers there, by being able to fill out your PayPal. Again, some adjacencies and extensions onto our business, that's physical, moving into the Web world.

If you think about our Redbox business, we have our tickets business that we're testing out, we have Reserve Online, so we're always stepping out past what we're doing from the physical presence as well.

We have a team that's really focused around new business ventures. We have Rubi -- which you guys have tasted -- the Rubi machine, our coffee business.

Austin: The reviews were good.

Di Valerio: That's right, good. Yeah, we have Crisp Market, which is prepared food in the breakfast and lunch daypart, and we have Star Studio, which is in the mall channel, which is a whole new take on photo booth, so green screens and music and fun, really geared toward the teenager that goes to the mall -- particularly the teen girls that go to the mall -- and making it a fun experience for them.

We continue to stretch out around those kinds of businesses in order to be able to bring new customers to the Coinstar brand, but also to bring new products to our customers and continue to extend out that relationship that we have with them.

Austin: It sounds like a lot of new products. I believe Rubi is, what, a partnership with Starbucks as well, right? Seattle's Best is a Starbucks label?

Di Valerio: Seattle's Best is a Starbucks label. We have an agreement with Seattle's Best in certain channels, to provide beans as well as to brand the machines. We certainly are a very good partner with them, but Rubi is 100% owned by Coinstar; we've generated business. It's a partnership that we have with them in bean supply, as well as obviously brand across key channels.

Austin: OK, so it looks like we have Rubi, some sort of food-based vending machines, and some photo-based vending machines. If you were to pick a "favorite child," so to speak, which one do you think has the most growth? Which one are you the most excited about, going out a few years?

Di Valerio: Certainly our Rubi machines. The other businesses are relatively early-stage businesses.

It's always hard to say, "OK, which one's going to hit?" Again, Crisp Market is performing well in the couple of stores that they're in today, the couple offices that they're in today. Star Studio is in around 60-70 mall locations and doing quite well, so we think that could be a nice business there.

We also have a business we call Sample It, which is beauty samples, today. Think about paying a dollar at a CVS or a Walgreen's [ (NYSE: WAG  ) ] for a couple samples of a cosmetic and a coupon. Not only do you, for a dollar, get to try out whether the product is going to work for you, but then you get a coupon to be able to purchase it.

The machines we have in market there are performing well, and the coupon redemption is quite high, which the brands love, as well as the retailers. In fact, Walgreen's just opened a brand-new banner store in downtown Boston and the sample machine was built into the store there, and again was a key focal point as they opened up the store.

Austin: Sample It! -- it seems like you've got some friendships with Walgreen's. I know you have a lot of kiosks with them. What other brands are people sampling? Is it Avon, is it... ?

Di Valerio: Yeah. Right now it's geared on beauty. We think it can extend to personal care and then on past that as well.

If you go into a Sample It! there will be a fragrance product from Halle Berry with the Halle Berry brand, Beyonce has branded products in there. It's across a number of the different traditional cosmetic brands. There's face products, there are fragrances, there are lotions, those kinds of things.

It's, again, starting there. Small samples you can test out, eye care products, see if it works for you and then be able to go back and buy the regular size.

Austin: Great. I want to talk about the specter in the room of Redbox; obviously your cash-cow business, you've had a lot of success with it, but a lot of the naysayers would say, "You guys are already at 50% market share, and the DVD rental industry is an eroding space."

I'm wondering, what is it about Redbox, and Coinstar in general, that is going to... what would you say to the naysayers who are looking at this industry and saying, "Well, it's eroding. How are you guys going to maintain relevance?"

Di Valerio: Certainly. One of the key things with the Redbox business is we continue to grow our market share and continue to increase overall rents by focusing on the customer and bringing a great new release product to the customer.

There's not a company that can deliver a new release product at the price point we do, and I think our customers are rewarding us for that. The first quarter of 2013, we have 40 million unique credit card transactions, which was up a million from the fourth quarter of 2012 and up over 6% from the year before, so we're growing our customer base.

We rented nearly 200 million discs in the first quarter, so we're continuing to grow out that business; that was an increase. What we're seeing, the NPD data shows that there's a slowing -- the decline in the physical rental market -- as the market has absorbed the demise of the brick-and-mortar stores, where lots of rentals were going, the national chains, and have converted to Redbox, for the most part.

You're seeing revenues come down in the rental market, but those revenues are coming down in large part because of the price point differential from, when you went to brick-and-mortar, you paid a higher price point than the $1.20 or $1.50 that you do at Redbox.

Austin: OK. I'm wondering if you could discuss the economics of your different kiosks, maybe useful life, the revenue generation that you see out of them, if you could, maybe across your big ones -- Coinstar, Redbox, Rubi.

Di Valerio: You bet. The Redbox kiosk is a kiosk that costs us about $15,000 to manufacture and put into the market. It pays back for itself in about 18 to 24 months. It begins positive cash flow in about eight to 12 months, so it's a very nice machine.

They start off, from a ramp perspective, $35,000 in year one in revenue, $50[,000] in year two and $55[,000] in year three, so it's a nice ramp-up business that returns on itself quite nicely, and continues to go out from that perspective.

The useful life of the machines, we have Redbox machines that have been in market since the start. We certainly bring machines in and refurbish them and do those types of things over time, but they're very stable, very long-lasting machines, and have been built quite well from that perspective.

Uptimes are extremely high on both the coin and the Redbox machines. In fact, on the Redbox machines about 85%-90% of any issues we have with the machines are resolved remotely, from our network operating center. There's very few break-fix services that go out on the machines.

The same is true with the Coinstar machine. Again, very high uptime on those. All the machines are connected wirelessly, so we communicate with the machines routinely during the day. We can fix issues on the machines routinely.

Again, it's a quite nice business. The coin machines are in the $11[,000]-$12,000-kiosk range.

Austin: That's cost to build?

Di Valerio: Cost to build. They pay back in a little bit longer time than the Redbox machine because it's got fewer transactions going through, but again we've had coin machines in the marketplace... 22 years that we've been in the business, we've had machines that are in the marketplace 15 years. They're very solid.

We're always having to replace monitors and upgrades, and do those kinds of things on a refurb basis, but they're very strong, long-lasting machines with high uptime.

Austin: Great. You guys, it seems, have retail relationships with everybody. You've got Safeway, Wal-Mart, CVS, Walgreen's I think we talked about earlier. I'm sure they're all great partners, but what's your favorite retail partner and why?

Is there one that just provides really great entry points for you, that you really enjoy working with, or do you see a lot of use from your machines at certain locations?

Di Valerio: It really depends on the business. For the coin business, what we've found is grocery and mass merch is the best way to go. It has enough traffic and has a high enough traffic pace to where people come into the stores and utilize machines and those kinds of things. The drug and convenience channel really don't work for the coin business.

We look at it from that perspective. A new, emerging market for us -- channel for us, I should say -- for the coin business is the financial institution business. We just put 350 kiosks in, in TD Bank Canada, and are processing points for TD Bank, and we're looking to expand.

We have a few machines in the U.S. today in the banking or financial institution channel and we're looking to expand that out as we go out.

It really depends on business from a channel perspective. When we look at Redbox, for example, we're in the grocery channel, we're in the mass merch channel, we're in convenience, and we're in drug, but we have the machines located at different places.

For convenience and drug, we're primarily outdoors. What that allows us to do is be open for 24 hours a day, it allows customers to see the machine, and it gets the right amount of traffic, both for us and as well for our retailers. And, again, it utilizes space that's very underutilized and turns it into very profitable space as well.

We really do focus based on the channel. If I look at some of our new businesses like Rubi, the grocery channel will be a very good channel for us. The mass merch channel will be a very good channel for us as well. I think we really do try to take a look at it based on the channels, as opposed to an individual retailer that's out there.

Austin: It's the right channel, the right placement, and the right machine is really what dictates it.

Di Valerio: Exactly.

Austin: Who would be the best retail partner that you don't already have? Who do you really want to become a partner with, that you haven't already tied the knot?

Di Valerio: We're very fortunate in the Redbox business, for example, that we have the top 10 national grocery chains under our banners. We have Wal-Mart, which is the largest mass merch center, as well as CVS and Walgreen's in the drug channel, and 7-Eleven and Circle K in convenience, so we have very, very strong channel space there.

With the coin business, we have nine of the 10 grocery chains under the coin banner, and Wal-Mart as well in the mass merch, so we have very strong relationships, as you've mentioned, across there. Certainly there are a couple on the coin side.

There's one grocery chain that we don't have, which we would love to bring up underneath the banner, which is Publix. Certainly, we always are looking and talking to Target as another large mass merch, to see if there are some opportunities with them for some of our businesses on a general basis.

Austin: OK. I wanted to talk a little bit about the progress of Redbox Instant and your partnership with Verizon [ (NYSE: VZ  ) ]. I'm wondering if you could maybe just elaborate on that, any progress you guys have going there, or what you're seeing as the early results?

Di Valerio: You bet. Yeah, we're very pleased with our partnership with Verizon, to bring Redbox Instant to the marketplace. We signed that deal in February of 2012, and about 15 months later were able to launch a product through kind of a beta, general availability. We're pleased with it so far.

One of the things we've been really doing is trying to understand from the customer, is there enough content between the around 5,000 titles that you have on the streaming side, as well as getting great new release content from the kiosk?

The surveys from our customers are saying yes, there's enough content, and they're finding great new-release content because you get four nights at the kiosk each month on the subscription, as well as the streaming, as we think about the business; that's both from customers who have stayed on and are paid subscribers, as well as ones who churned out of the business, so we're always trying to find the best mix there.

One of the great things about the Redbox Instant business is you basically have the full old brick-and-mortar store available to you.

If you think about it, when you used to go to a brick-and-mortar store you'd walk around the outside walls because that's where the new-release content was. We've taken that new-release content, and that's Redbox. Basically we've taken those outside walls and put them into 12 square feet. With Redbox Instant, we now have the center of the store available to our customers.

We think it's a great opportunity for our customers, it's a great value for our customers today at $8 for four standard-def rentals a month, plus unlimited streaming, or $9 for Blu-ray, for four nights at the kiosk.

We're really pleased; we think it's a great value for our customers, and as we roll into the third quarter, Redbox Instant will do a lot more work around promoting the service as we've brought on more CE device manufacturers so that people are going to get that 10-foot experience for being able to get it up on the TV in a much broader way.

Austin: Now, obviously there's a lot of incumbents in the streaming space. We can't talk about this without saying Netflix [ (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) ] and Amazon [ (NASDAQ: AMZN  ) ] Prime. Are they your biggest competitors here, or am I misreading it? Do you think about it differently?

Di Valerio: Yeah, I think our competitor is people's time, is what we look at. What are people going to choose to do for their entertainment value? Certainly those folks are in that space across there, plus a whole host of other people as well.

We think we are very well positioned because, for customers who love movies, you've got a service where you get new-release content. We're the only service that can bring new-release content, and the physical aspect of it, as well as the streaming in there.

What you're really doing is getting real new-release content when you want it, how you want it, and then be able to get your stream from around that.

Again, we're doing the business in a different way than some of the competitors on the streaming side. We are paying for content on a per-subscriber basis, which means each subscriber we bring on for Redbox Instant is gross margin positive.

It's different than... A lot of our competitors are buying content up front and having to build up the subscriber base in order to be able to cover off the costs, so they run negative a much longer time period than we will, from a profitability standpoint.

Because of the way that we're structured and running the business, we can be the No. 3 or No. 4 streaming business, and still be very, very successful, both for us and for Verizon.

Austin: It's because of that margin dynamic.

Di Valerio: The margin dynamic, and the fact that we're combining new-release content at the kiosk, on a physical basis, along with the stream, which is something that people are finding very compelling.

Austin: Now, the new-release issue has definitely been a user negative, leveled against Netflix and Verizon. What is it about you guys that allows you to bring new releases to users? I think a lot of people aren't really familiar with the dynamic of why some of the streaming people have to wait and why you're able to get the new-release content out there earlier, in front of users.

Di Valerio: There's a couple of ways to get new-release content from the studios. One is physical, which certainly we do here at the kiosk, and are really focused on that as a company. The other way is through what they call paid video on demand -- not the subscription video on demand -- so to pay $5-$6 to view a movie at home on your TV.

Really, we provide that same content at $1.20 for standard def and $1.50 for Blu-ray. People are continuing to buy Blu-ray players at very high rates. People love to get that physical disc and put it in, because there isn't a better way, from a Blu-ray perspective, to get really high-definition-quality picture and sound. The way you get it is through the disc. You can't get that through a stream.

We feel very good about that. We obviously are focused on it, and we think that combination, as you look at Redbox Instant, combined with Redbox on the physical side, is a winning combination.

Austin: Good combo there for users.

What's next in the pipeline for Coinstar? You guys obviously are rolling out a lot of new devices, looking at new automated kiosks. What else is there for users, that they should be looking forward to over the next few years?

Di Valerio: We're going to continue to look and bring great automated retail solutions. Certainly, with our coin line of business we are rolling out the PayPal, so that's a great opportunity for people to lever their PayPal accounts and do some things they want to do there.

We also have a business in the coin business called Gift Card Exchange, where you can exchange your gift cards that you've been getting for years, at stores that you might not go to, or stores that you have a little bit of money left on those cards, and get those turned in for cash.

We think that's going to be a very interesting business for us. We're starting to roll that business out. There's around 50 kiosks in the market today and we'll expand that out over the next year to capture that, and also be looking to do that with both your physical gift card, but also your digital gift cards, to be able to be the place where you're turning in your gift cards and then we're remonetizing those out.

As I look at Redbox, for example, we're obviously beginning to roll out Redbox Instant in a broader fashion, along with Verizon. We're testing tickets out, and we're putting in some very good CRM and loyalty programs that will roll out in the third and fourth quarters that will continue to extend out that Redbox brand and value: simplicity, convenience, and entertainment.

We are the No. 1 place for people to watch new-release content. We want to be the No. 1 place that people come to for overall entertainment.

If I look at the business broader, we think there are some great opportunities to bring new products into the marketplace, but also to extend them out, both from a physical perspective as well as from an online perspective, and keep marrying those two things up as we go forward.

Austin: Great. You guys have dramatically reduced shares outstanding in just a few quarters. I think it was about 3 million shares. I'm wondering, now that you're CEO, if you could discuss the logic and strategy behind that share repurchase program and whether or not you guys are interested in continuing it?

Di Valerio: You bet. We do capital allocation on a holistic basis. You first take a look and say, "OK, I need to invest in my core businesses to continue to grow them, both from new innovations into the core businesses, as well as the existing. I need to invest in new businesses" -- like we've been talking about -- "to bring new concepts into the marketplace, and then also in infrastructure in the corporation."

You calculate out what those returns are, and also returning money to the shareholders through share buyback. We'll continue to do that. We balance those out to make sure that we're doing it in a smart way, but a way that really does drive the highest return.

Four years ago, our return on invested capital, for example, was in the low single digits. Last year we finished out at 18.3%.

Austin: Congratulations.

Di Valerio: It's a nice focus for us to continue to do that, and as we try to grow out this business -- and we've talked about doubling the size of the company over the next five years -- we're going to do that while getting our return on invested capital up to 20%, which isn't necessarily the easiest thing to do, but that's how we stay in this very structured and balanced approach to getting returns for our shareholders.

Austin: Got to aim high.

Di Valerio: That's right.

Austin: What do you think is the single biggest thing that retail investors may be missing, or should know, about Coinstar today?

Di Valerio: It's a business that really focuses on its customer, and it's a business that is very operationally sound, and a business that continues to be inventive, innovative, and to bring new products to the market that customers want, and do it in a way that's efficient and effective, that's driving top-line and bottom-line growth.

If you look at our business, we've grown double-digits over the last four or five years, both top line and bottom line, and we've driven great free cash flow: well over $250 million of free cash flow last year, we'll generate between $185 [million] and $205 million of free cash flow this year.

It's a business that's very strong, very growth-oriented, but we're growing profitability at the same time we're growing revenue and free cash flows, which is, again, a business that is very good to run. It's a business that should be very good to invest in, and one that's probably a little bit misunderstood, given the fact that we have a lot of great businesses and we're in a business that we think is going to continue to grow, and grow quite rapidly.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Australia stocks rise, paced by mining advances

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Australia stocks rose early Wednesday, as advances for mining shares put the equity benchmark in line for a seventh straight gain. The S&P/ASX 200 (AU:XJO) tacked on 0.4% at 5,394.90. Shares of mining company each picked up at least 1.2% after gold, silver and other metals futures jumped on expectations of further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve in the wake of soft U.S. September jobs data. Stock in gold producer Newcrest Mining Ltd. (AU:NCM) (NCMGF) and Evolution Mining Ltd. (AU:EVN) (CAHPF) surged 5.6% and 6.3%, respectively, and copper miner OZ Minerals Ltd. (AU:OZL) (OZMLF) rose 1.5%. Iron-ore producer BHP Billiton Ltd. (AU:BHP) (BHP) moved up 1.8%, extending gains after raising its fiscal year iron-ore production forecast. Financial shares were modestly higher ahead of Australia's third-quarter inflation report due later Wednesday. Macquarie Group Ltd. (AU:MQG) (MCQEF) added 1.3% and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (AU:CBA) (CBAUF) rose 0.3%.

Monday, October 21, 2013

5 Undeniable Reasons Your Prescription Drug Costs Are So Ridiculously High

Americans spend a little less than $1,000 annually per person on average for prescription drugs. That's the average, which means that many spend a lot more. Why are prescription costs so ridiculously high? You might not like the answers, but here they are.

1. You're paying for other drugs that you don't use.
When you put your money down at the pharmacy for Lyrica, the nerve and muscle pain drug from Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) , you're really paying for your Lyrica prescription plus a whole host of other drugs. How's that possible? The answer lies in the realities of the drug development process.

Dr. Josh Bloom with the American Council on Science and Health estimates that it takes a drugmaker an average of 14 years to bring a drug to market -- at a total cost of around $1.3 billion. However, only one out of every 50 drugs that start down the development path actually make it to market. And, of those that do, typically only two out of 10 will make a profit.

Pfizer spent around $890 million on cholesterol drug torcetrapib, only to cancel the drug's development program in 2006 after serious safety concerns. The big pharmaceutical company wrote off $2.8 billion on inhalable insulin Exubera after consumers simply didn't like it.

How did Pfizer make up for those and other losses? Like all the other drugmakers, it added to the cost of the drugs that did succeed -- so Lyrica and others cost more than they would have otherwise. 

2. You're paying for the world.
The weight of the world might not be on your shoulders, but the weight of subsidizing the world's drugs is. Prescription drug costs are higher in the U.S. than in any other country. Per-capita pharmaceutical spending in Canada, the second-highest nation, is a whopping 33% lower than in the U.S.

Two words explain why: price controls. Most other countries establish fixed price limits that they will pay for prescription drugs. What this means, though, is that pharmaceutical companies raise their prices for prescription drugs sold in the U.S. to make up for charging lower prices throughout the rest of the world.

You might think the simple solution is to implement price controls in the U.S., too. Such a move probably would lower prices for the drugs currently available.

The problem, though, is that it would provide financial disincentives for pharmaceutical companies to develop as many new drugs as they do now. If that happened, it could end up actually increasing overall health care costs, since taking prescription drugs is frequently much less expensive than other medical treatments.

3. You're paying for others to find out about the drug you use.
Marketing is king in the world of pharmaceuticals. And it demands a king's ransom. Unfortunately, you ultimately pay that ransom every time you buy a prescription drug.

Pfizer's advertising budget last year totaled more than $622 million. Over half of that budget was spent promoting three drugs -- Celebrex, Viagra, and Lyrica.Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY  ) wasn't far behind with an ad budget topping $433 million. Nearly 94% of that amount was spent on only two drugs, in this case Cymbalta and Cialis.

Nielsen's tracking found that the top 10 pharmaceutical companies spent $2.7 billion last year on direct-to-consumer advertising. However, that figure doesn't include online advertising or physician promotions, so the actual marketing budgets for the big pharma companies is even larger. Research firm Cegedim estimates that total pharmaceutical industry spending on promoting drugs was around $28 billion in 2010.

You're also likely picking up part of the tab for the companies mistakes in how they promote their products. For example, Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT  ) settled federal and state lawsuits accusing the company of inappropriate promotion practices for epilepsy drug Depakote for a cool $1.6 billion last year.

At the time of the settlement, the Justice Department said that the case demonstrated that "those who put profits ahead of patients will pay a hefty price." A hefty price was surely paid, but Abbott's profits for 2012 were more than 26% higher than either of the previous two years.

4. You're paying Uncle Sam.
Don't forget your good friends at the IRS. The passage of the Affordable Care Act brought new fees for large drugmakers totaling $80 billion. That amount is spread over multiple years, though. "Only" $2.8 billion was paid by pharmaceutical companies last year.

Technically, the big pharma companies pay these fees, which basically are excise taxes. However, those companies can't pay the IRS unless it first gets the money from its customers. Ultimately, you're paying Uncle Sam.

5. You're paying for profits.
Regardless of what product you purchase, you're paying for the maker of those products to make money. It's no different with prescription drugs. The concern is over whether prices paid by consumers contribute to excessive profits.

Most pharmaceutical companies generate nice profits. Despite Lilly's woes from losing patent protection for some of its big drugs, the company still had a profit margin of over 20%. Even though Abbott paid a steep fine last year for a legal settlement, its profit margin was 13% -- better than a lot of companies.

Pfizer ranks first among all Dow index stocks in terms of profit margin, with a margin of nearly 27%. The other two pharmaceutical companies in the Dow have profit margins higher than the average Dow company. However, of the top 10 Dow stocks ranked by profit margin, four are technology firms. Pharmaceutical companies generate high profit margins, but they're not always the highest among all industries.

A little good news
You're paying ridiculously high prices for prescriptions, but there is a little bit of good news. In 2012, Americans actually spent less on prescription drugs than the prior year for the first time on record. It was only 1% less -- but that's still better than spending more.

I figure this improvement amounts to maybe having an extra $10 in the wallet for the average American. You might want to hold on to that money. You'll probably need it soon enough.

Wondering if you'll spend more of your extra money because of Obamacare? Don't worry -- you're not alone. To help prepare investors for the massive changes coming to the American health care system, The Motley Fool created a special free report that makes this complex topic easily understandable. Download "Everything You Need to Know About Obamacare" and discover how the law may impact your taxes, health insurance, and investments. Click here for your free copy today.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Why MannKind Is Poised to Pull Back

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, biopharmaceutical company MannKind (NASDAQ: MNKD  ) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at MannKind and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

MannKind facts

Headquarters (founded)

Valencia, Calif. (1991)

Market Cap

$2.1 billion

Industry

Biotechnology

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$35 thousand

Management

Founder/Chairman/CEO Alfred Mann

President/COO Hakan Edstrom

Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)

(39.4%)

Cash/Debt

$28.0 million / $332.0 million

Competitors

Eli Lilly
GlaxoSmithKline
Novo Nordisk

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 16% of the 695 members who have rated MannKind believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just yesterday, one of those Fools, All-Star zzlangerhans, tapped the stock's recent surge as particularly unsustainable:

At the end of last year I looked over all the stocks in my biopharma database and tried to predict which would be the biggest runner of 2013. My conclusion? Mannkind. But I never bought in or even green thumbed because the run started earlier than I expected and I kept waiting for a pullback that never came. ... And after the company solidified their guidance to topline results of Affinity 1 and Affinity 2 in mid August, the stock went parabolic. The moral: don't be so obsessed with catching a stock at the absolute bottom. ...

Now I'm left with another crummy red thumb. I don't think Mannkind is worth two billion even if the Affinity trials are a resounding success and Afrezza is approved the next time round. I've been a long-term bear on MannKind for years and my reasons are well-documented here. A 300% rise in share price this year is completely unjustified and simply represents traders playing the "greater fool" game. I'm terrible at judging when that game will end but at some inflection point, whether it is positive data or drug approval, this stub is going to tank.

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Friday, October 18, 2013

Fed Balance Sheet Getting Closer and Closer to $4 Trillion

The U.S. Federal Reserve is supposedly independent of the government, even if running the Fed is a Presidential appointment and requires backing of Congress. It also pays profits back to the government. The problem is the Federal Reserve is becoming not just larger than most central banks but larger than most governments themselves. What we just cannot ignore is that the Federal Reserve’s data from this week shows that its balance sheet is nearing $4 trillion.

If you think that this does not matter, it certainly should because it is as if another financial super-power has been created since the recession. Germany’s 2012 GDP on a purchasing power parity basis was $3.25 trillion and that is the 6th largest GDP in the world if you actually count the European Union. Japan’s 2012 GDP was $4.7 trillion. It is hard to compare an asset base to a nation’s GDP but it should help as a reference. If that is not good enough, it is almost as if another Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) combined have been created into one giant asset base.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet grew the week ending October 16 by another $54.9 billion, and that was after a prior weekly gain of $11.3 billion. Some $45.6 billion of that was in mortgage-backed securities followed by $8.3 billion in Treasuries.

The total end game is that the balance sheet is now $3.814 trillion. With the $85 billion in monthly new bond buying and with the rollover money being reinvested it is as though then entire system has magically more than created the GDP of Germany to buy securities. We should now hit the $4 trillion market just a few days short of or just after the start of 2014.

24/7 Wall St. keeps bringing this up, and for some reason it keeps falling on deaf ears. To make matters worse, if and when the Fed decides to start unloading these it will create much more supply of debt on the market and that will drive down prices and the value of the balance sheet. That larger supply on the market will have to compete with weekly treasury Auctions.

What if the Federal Reserve never sells a single Treasury or MBS? Is there an end game that the Federal Reserve will just transfer these assets back to the government? Or would it transfer assets back to the member banks? We have had a hard time even finding what the legality any potential transfers is and there certainly is no precedent.

As the Fed keeps sucking up all of this paper, it allows Americans to do things like keep buying up stocks, real estate, junk bonds and other risk-based assets without driving up rates. Many investors have been concerned about the ramifications of when the balance sheet growth (asset buying) stops, but we rarely hear about the real figures involved.

At some point someone of importance is likely to call Uncle and this will suddenly matter. America has become an expert of waiting until something reaches what the media deems as the next crisis and only then coming together to fix the situation. It may take a reading of $4 trillion for that to happen. Maybe even $5 trillion.

Consider this closely for the years ahead: Ben Bernanke is leaving Janet Yellen in charge of the largest base of assets that have ever been delegated to any central banker in history.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Top Undervalued Stocks To Watch For 2014

Up from a week ago, 89 U.S. companies and more than 100 other companies worldwide are currently listed as undervalued and predictable. When GuruFocus applies discounted cash flow and discounted earnings to top ranked predictable companies, and calculates their intrinsic values, these companies appear to be undervalued. Read more about the assumptions and methodology used here.

Measuring by the discounted cash flow model and the discounted earning model, here are three undervalued, predictable companies, up over 12 months. Note the yields and placement in billionaire portfolios, as of June 30, 2013:

Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR) ��Yield 1.38%

Predictability: 3.5 Stars

Founded originally in 1985, Inter Parfums Inc. manufactures, markets and distributes various fragrances and fragrance related products.

Up 65% over 12 months, Inter Parfums Inc. has a market cap of $907.3 million, and trades at a P/E of 6.30 and a P/B of 2.20. The current share price is around $29.10. Under the discounted cash flow model the valuation is $8.00 with a -264% discount. The discounted earning valuation is $127 with a discount of 77%.

Top Undervalued Stocks To Watch For 2014: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By David Smith]

    A few of the compelling companies
    From my perspective, the message to be taken away from Stuart's presentation is simply that, even in the face of potential U.S. economic distress, a well-structured portfolio will contain at least a modicum of energy of names. For starters I'd look to Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB  ) , the world's leading oilfield services company and energy's technology major domo. Given its operations in about 85 countries, a worldwide energy cataclysm would seemingly be required for the big company to face a significant slowdown.

  • [By Matt DiLallo]

    Investors may wonder if peers like�Halliburton� (NYSE: HAL  ) �and�Schlumberger� (NYSE: SLB  ) �were pressured this quarter as well. Both companies have waded through the sluggish North American market by relying on growth overseas. If that trend continues, it should continue to mute some of the weakness Nabors experienced.

Top Undervalued Stocks To Watch For 2014: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Udovich]

    Everyone is familiar with�the Tupperware brand from�consumer products stock Tupperware Brands Corporation (NYSE: TUP) and you are probably familiar with the brands�of mid cap stock Jarden Corp (NYSE: JAH) along with small cap stocks Libbey Inc (NYSEMKT: LBY) and Lifetime Brands Inc (NASDAQ: LCUT); but what about the stocks themselves? Chances are, their brands or products are right under your nose at home and you probably don�� know anything about the mid cap or small cap stock behind them.

  • [By Brian Pacampara]

    Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, household products company Tupperware Brands (NYSE: TUP  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

Top 5 Low Price Companies To Watch In Right Now: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Divine]

    That said, there was a modicum of more straightforward logic behind today's slump: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) component Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) issued a gloomy outlook for the coming year and disappointed on earnings. The Dow ended with 25-point, or 0.2%, losses, closing at 15,542.

Top Undervalued Stocks To Watch For 2014: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jacob Roche]

    With the economy starting to improve, you might think Dollar Tree's (NASDAQ: DLTR  ) fortunes will reverse. The deep discounter provided unemployed and lower-income consumers a safe place in the storm, but with the economic weather clearing up, it would be reasonable to expect consumers to venture out again to higher-end retailers. However, that assumption would be wrong.

  • [By Lawrence Meyers]

    The finance sector, as mentioned, can make money in many ways. The second-highest growth sector is expected to be consumer discretionary, with a 6.2% increase. When you look at earnings from luxury brands like Tiffany & Co. (TIF), and that the hotel sector continues to do very well, it suggests that those people who are in good financial shape are spending their money. Meanwhile, dollar players like Dollar Tree (DLTR) continue to perform very well, suggesting that folks with less money are spending it on cheaper items.

  • [By Rich Duprey]

    Deep discounter Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR  ) announced today that its current chief operating officer, Gary Philbin, will now also carry the title of president, a position previously held by company CEO Bob Sasser.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Is There a Biotech Bubble?

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has gained 46% this year, and that includes the 6% drubbing it’s taken this week. But biotechs are rallying today–the ETF is up 2.2% at 10:28 a.m., so investors need to decide whether they should be using the dip to buy or the bounce to sell.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

With that in mind, consider the latest report from Citigroup’s Yaron Werber and Jonathan Eckard, “Are We in a Biotech Bubble?,” which hit my in-box late last night. They never really answer the question–do analysts ever?–but they offer some advice to investors wondering what to do now:

Valuations for the biotech sector have appreciated considerably driven by generalist interest in the sector and growing optimism for pipeline success, drug innovation, and M&A deals. The growth profile of the sector is particularly attractive in an otherwise uninspiring macro growth environment. However, a pullback seemed inevitable as generalists evaluate what they actually own and begin to better factor in the risks involved in the small-/mid-cap sector on the heels of several disappointments. On several parameters, the sector has appeared stretched for several months. Given the recent selloff, we continue to like some of the stocks that are developing innovative products, and offer strong revenue/EPS growth. However, we caution that drug development is challenging and that there should be a better balance between returns and appetite for risks in stocks.

Werber and Eckard remain bullish on large-cap biotechs. They write:

While we concede that the valuations for the large-cap group are not cheap, they seem reasonable given the strong fundamentals and robust growth profiles. Given the scarcity of growth stocks in the overall market, we expect these stocks to bounce back once the concerns over the cliff are resolved. But the story looks different for small-/mid-cap stocks where valuations are broadly stretched and the Street is overly optimistic of the chances for pipeline success.

Recent IPO, however, not so much:

The biotech IPO market has been busy with >30 offerings YTD. These offerings have had a strong run this year with an average return of +93% from launch to peak share price. The average return from IPO debut to present is +36%. But this week, this group is down on average by -11% as investors begin to discount the risks involved as some clinical stage drugs have recently yielded disappointing results. In our view, investors need to be cognizant of the risks involved in the biotech sector and balance them with the potential rewards especially as expectations for future sales are becoming untenably high for some drugs.

Werber and Eckhard’s favorites include Gilead (GILD) and Celgene (CELG), and they find the “risk/reward…compelling” in Medivation (MDVN) and Tesaro (TSRO).

Top 10 Gold Companies To Invest In 2014

Celgene has gained 2.8% to $150.98 today, while Gilead has gained 4.6% after its leukemia drug worked so well that the biotech giant halted the trial.

Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) had its own trial halted yesterday, but it was by the FDA and it was because one of its drugs was deemed too dangerous–and caused the stock to lose two-thirds of its value. Investors are running scared, but there are optimists at Leerink Swann Research. Analysts Howard Liang and Gena Wang write:

We believe there remains a place for Iclusig in patients in the salvage setting despite continued cardiovascular (CV) toxicity findings. We believe that the growth of the chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) market, with the prevalence expected to double in the next 20 years according to a published report, and relatively high failure rate of 10-40% a year on prior line of treatment, creates a growing salvage opportunity that is more than sufficient to support ARIA’s valuation. There is no longer expectation of front-line use, therefore generic Gleevec is no longer a risk. The upside would be if CV toxicity can be successfully managed by patient selection and/or dose reduction to allow earlier use. The downside scenario of Iclusig being removed from the market seems unlikely to us given the lack of effective options for patients with T315I mutation and after a second-generation agent.

Shares of Ariad have fallen 1% to $5.77 today.

Monday, October 14, 2013

The Only Seven Earnings Reports That Really Matter

The general investing public will spend much of its energy waiting for earnings from famous companies such as Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) and J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP). These are nothing more than entertainment. There in no reason to look beyond the earnings of seven companies to get a fix on how well the major sectors within the American economy are doing.

First among these is Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) because its retail sales eclipse those of any other bricks-and-mortar retailers. Its performance has lagged that of most other big-box store chains. And its growth has been thrashed by Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN). However, with quarterly sales of more than $115 billion, of which two-thirds are in the United States, Walmart is a reasonable proxy for the consumer spending habits of much of the middle class and most of the people who have individual earnings below those. With more than one million employees, the fate of Walmart ripples beyond its customers into its workforce.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is the single most important bellwether for media spending, which in turn measures the outlook of those who advertise. Hundreds of thousands of marketers run messages through Google Adwords. The search company also has a massive network of affiliated sites that span virtually the entire Internet. No print properties, television properties, cable networks or huge Internet media can match that breadth or even approach it.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has been the largest energy company in the United States for years, and it has often been the world’s largest company by the yardstick of revenue. It remains a dominant force in both exploration and refining. As other oil firms have shed some of their upstream or downstream assets, Exxon continues to be a global factor in both businesses. Exxon may not be a perfect measure of the effects of the price and demand for oil, but with sales of $120 billion, it represents an outsized part of its industry.

In the financial sector, Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) has large enough businesses across the consumer, corporation and institutional finance markets to be a strong marker for itself and its peers. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) held this place for the past two years, but its legal problems distort its numbers. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) earnings rely disproportionately on consumers, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s (NYSE: GS) on the institutional part of the sector. The fact that Bank of America is in the midst of its own recovery does not mask its underlying numbers and their importance to taking stock of the financial industry.

Several companies could be taken as yardsticks for personal computers (PCs) and consumer electronics. But results from Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) measure the entire PC ecosystem, and its numbers should tell almost everything about those of Microsoft Corp. (NYSE: MSFT), PC manufacturers and suppliers to the industrial giants.

Despite its recent failures, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) still holds an important enough place to measure the new device markets of tablets and smartphones, which ripple to large public corporations that make chips and components for portable devices. Apple’s numbers also stretch to the results of the largest telecom companies — AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), which rely heavily on their wireless results as their wireline businesses disintegrate.

Finally, the slow death of General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) does not keep it from representing much of the national economy. It is still the world’s largest conglomerate, with results that give insight into the medical, finance, infrastructure and transportation manufacturing sectors.

The most notable point about the companies that are most important to evaluating the American economy is that so many of them have struggled with earnings results this year. With the exception of Google, they are in some state of decline, even if it is only a brief one. That may say something about the economy as a whole. In terms of how the gross domestic product will be the rest of the year, and into 2014, the results, together, should drive optimism or pessimism about the next several quarters.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Top 5 Cheap Stocks To Own For 2014

Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) CEO Elon Musk had plenty of interesting things to say this week. He wowed Tesla owners by announcing that the company was tripling the number of Supercharger stations, offering drivers free Tesla battery charging options in more locations. He also teased that more details would be forthcoming on his "hyperloop" project that would help transport people faster and cheaper than bullet trains or planes.

However, the one comment that truly turned heads was Musk's forecast -- at both the AllThingsD conference and later on CNBC -- that Tesla will put out a sedan in three to four years that costs half as much as today's Model S.

Tesla now commands an $11 billion market cap after seeing its stock nearly triple in three months. That valuation doesn't seem sustainable for a company putting out a niche car with a $70,000 price tag. For Tesla to go mainstream, it needs to tackle the "range anxiety" fears -- and it's addressing that in part through the Supercharger expansion -- and lower prices.

Top 5 Cheap Stocks To Own For 2014: Alliance Holdings GP L.P.(AHGP)

Alliance Holdings GP, L.P., through its subsidiaries, produces and markets coal primarily to utilities and industrial users in the United States. It produces a range of steam coal with varying sulfur and heat contents. The company operates nine underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, and West Virginia. As of December 31, 2010, it had approximately 697.4 million tons of proven and probable coal reserves in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. In addition, the company leases land; and operates a coal loading terminal, with a capacity of 8.0 million tons with ground storage of approximately 60,000 to 70,000 tons, on the Ohio River at Mt. Vernon, Indiana. Further, it engages in purchasing and selling coal; and providing services, including ash and scrubber sludge removal, coal yard maintenance, and arranging alternate transportation services. Alliance GP, LLC, serves as the general partner of the company. Allian ce Holdings GP, L.P. is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Alliance Holdings GP (Nasdaq: AHGP  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Top 5 Cheap Stocks To Own For 2014: First Busey Corporation(BUSE)

First Busey Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Busey Bank that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services to individual, corporate, institutional, and governmental customers in the United States. It accepts noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing transaction, savings, money market, and time deposits. The company?s loan portfolio includes commercial, agricultural, and real estate loans; individual, consumer, installment, first mortgage, and second mortgage loans; and commercial real estate, residential real estate, and consumer loans. It also provides money transfer, safe deposit, fiduciary, automated banking, and automated fund transfer services. In addition, the company provides asset management, brokerage, and fiduciary services, including financial planning, investment management, retirement planning, brokerage, and trust and estate advisory services to individuals; investment management, business succession planning, an d employee retirement plan services to businesses; and investment management, investment strategy consulting, and fiduciary services to foundations. Further, it offers pay processing solutions, such as walk-in payments processing for payments delivered by customers to retail pay agents; online bill payment solutions for payments made by customers on a billing company?s Website; customer service payments for payments accepted over the telephone; direct debit services; electronic concentration of payments delivered by the automated clearing house network; money management software and credit card networks; and lockbox remittance processing of payments delivered by mail. The company has 33 locations in Illinois, 7 locations in southwest Florida, and 1 location in Indianapolis, Indiana. First Busey Corporation was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Champaign, Illinois.

5 Best Safest Stocks To Buy Right Now: Aegon NV(AEG)

AEGON N.V. provides life insurance, pensions, and asset management products and services worldwide. The company?s life insurance products include traditional, term, universal, whole, and other life insurance products sold as part of defined benefit pension plans, endowment policies, post-retirement annuity products, and group risk products; supplemental health insurance products comprise accidental death, other injury, critical illness, hospital indemnity, medicare supplement, and student health; specialty lines consists of travel, membership, and creditor products; and long term care insurance products for policyholders who require care due to a chronic illness or cognitive impairment. It also offers a range of savings and retirement products and services, including mutual funds, and fixed and variable annuities, savings accounts and investment contracts, segregated funds, guaranteed investment accounts, and single premium immediate annuities, as well as investment advice to individuals. In addition, the company offers employer solutions and pensions, such as retirement plans, pension plans, and pension-related products and services; investment products, including onshore and offshore bonds, and trusts; reinsurance products and solutions to life insurance and financial services companies; general insurance products comprising house, car, and fire insurance; and asset management products and services, including general account assets, unit-linked funds, and third party activities. AEGON N.V. markets its products through independent and career agents, financial planners, registered representatives, independent marketing organizations, banks, broker-dealers, benefit consulting firms, wirehouses, affinity groups, institutional partners, independent managing general agencies, and specialized financial advisors, as well as through online, direct, and worksite marketing. The company was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in The Hague, the Netherl ands.

Top 5 Cheap Stocks To Own For 2014: Uranium Resources Inc.(URRE)

Uranium Resources, Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and mining of uranium properties, using the in situ recovery or solution mining process. It owns developed and undeveloped uranium properties in South Texas; and undeveloped uranium properties in New Mexico. The company?s primary customers include utilities who utilize nuclear power to generate electricity. Uranium Resources, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is based in Lewisville, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Udovich]

    Since the start of the week, small cap nuclear fuel stock USEC Inc (NYSE: USU) more than doubled for investors, something that has not happened for investors in uranium stocks like Uranium Resources, Inc (NASDAQ: URRE), Denison Mines Corp (NYSEMKT: DNN), Ur-Energy Inc. (NYSEMKT: URG) and Uranerz Energy Corp (NYSEMKT: URZ). To recap: USEC Inc closed at the $6 level on Friday, but then it surged to the $15 level on Monday only to open at the $10 level on Tuesday when it ultimately closed at $12.46. So what in the world is going on with USEC Inc and is it time to revisit nuclear fuel and uranium stocks?

Top 5 Cheap Stocks To Own For 2014: Oracle Corporation(ORCL)

Oracle Corporation, an enterprise software company, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and services database and middleware software, applications software, and hardware systems worldwide. It licenses of database and middleware software, including database management software, application server software, service-oriented architecture and business process management software, data integration software, business intelligence software, identity and access management software, content management software, portals and user interaction software, development tools, and Java; and applications software comprising enterprise resource planning, customer relationship management, enterprise performance management, supply chain management, business intelligence applications, enterprise portfolio project management, Web commerce, and industry-specific applications software. The company also offers customers with rights to unspecified software product upgrades and maintenance releases; Internet access to technical content; and Internet and telephone access to technical support personnel. In addition, its hardware systems products consist of computer server and hardware-related software, including the Oracle Solaris Operating System; and storage products, such as tape, disk and networking solutions for open systems and mainframe server environments. Its hardware systems support solutions include software updates for the software components. Further, the company offers consulting solutions in business and IT strategy alignment, enterprise architecture planning and design, initial product implementation and integration, and ongoing product enhancements and upgrades; cloud services, including Oracle Cloud Services and Advanced Customer Services; and education solutions comprising instructor-led, media-based, and Internet-based training in the use of its software and hardware products. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Redwood Ci ty, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Alex Dumortier, CFA]

    An interesting fundamental story
    Yesterday afternoon, enterprise software provider Oracle (NYSE: ORCL  ) announced results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended May 31. Earnings per share were up 5% (excluding items), and the company announced a doubling in its dividend to $0.12 per share and an additional $12 billion for its existing share-repurchase program. The market's reaction? Unimpressed, to say the least: Shares are down 8.6%. What's the problem?

  • [By Chuck Carnevale]

    Oracle Corp. (ORCL)

    The orange line on the following historical earnings and price correlated graph of Oracle Corp. (ORCL) shows that this consistent and fast growing technology company is clearly trading below its intrinsic value (the orange line). Even though this company has grown earnings almost 3 times faster than the S&P 500, it can currently be purchased at a PE ratio of 12.2 which is less than you can buy the average company for. In other words, whether or not the stock market in general is cheap, I for one will certainly argue that Oracle definitely is.

  • [By Mani]

    The team of Larry Ellison, the founder and Chief Executive of Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL), may have won the thirty-fourth America's Cup. However, it could be difficult for Ellison's corporate team to escape the discontent from shareholders, who are against higher pay packages for Oracle executives amid mixed results.